Steve Hall: This is How Facebook is Going to Die

Yesterday, Facebook's market value topped $100
billion. Zuck must be smitten his baby is now
worth close to last year's original IPO valuation.
Market confidence, which Monday included a
stock price increase of 1.9% to $41.34 with a daily
high of $41.94 (the highest since the IPO), is said
to be bolstered by belief Facebook just might
deliver on its mobile advertising promise. The
upswing is certainly positive news for the social
network which hit a stock price low of $17.73 in
September.
But can Zuckerberg, whose baby now realizes 41%
of its quarterly advertising revenue from
smartphone and tablet-centric promotions, really
make a go of it when recent Pew research find
teens have a "waning enthusiasm for Facebook"?
The report states dislike for the incessant over-
sharing that is part and parcel of the service. But,
more importantly, teens are miffed all their
parents and their parents friends are now on
Facebook.
What could be more horrific to a teen than mom
and dad commenting on a recent post with well-
intentioned love, affection and pride that in teen-
speak can only translate to extreme "did you see
what Sally's mom posted?" embarrassment? No
matter how well-intentioned, parents embarrass
their kids. It's just a fact of life. And while many
parents insist upon friending their children,
there's not one out there under the age of, say,
20, who actually wants that online friendship.
So while mobile ad revenue may be boosting
Facebook's health, it's no secret kids wants their
own, parent-free playground. For example,
Twitter has seen a 16% increase in teen usage
from 2011 to 2012. Not that Twitter is parent-free
but it's easier to avoid them.
Summarizing its recent BI Intelligence report on
teen's mobile-first usage, the publication wrote, "
we may be witnessing is the unraveling of a
unitary, centralized social media landscape,
dominated by Facebook, into a set of multipolar
nodes. Facebook warded off the Instagram threat
by buying the company, but it won't always be
possible for the company to neutralize threats
with acquisitions."
It's no secret services like Snapchat and the
recently Yahoo!-acquired Tumblr have been
heavily fueled by teen usage. In fact, a recent
Survata survey found more 13-18-year-old teens
(61%) use Tumblr than Facebook (55%).
Perhaps, lending the best insight into this
apparent shift by teens away from Facebook, 13-
year-old Ruby Karp wrote in a Mashable article,
I'm 13 and None of My Friends Use Facebook,
"Part of the reason Facebook is losing my
generation's attention is the fact that there are
other networks now. When I was 10, I wasn't old
enough to have a Facebook. But a magical thing
called Instagram had just come out … and our
parents had no idea there was an age limit.
Rapidly, all my friends got Instagrams. Teens are
followers. That's just what we are. If all my friends
are getting this cool new thing called Snapchat, I
want it, too! We want what's trending, and if
Facebook isn't 'trending,' teens won't care."
Commenting further on the embarrassment factor
of teens and their parents using the same social
network, Karp writes, "Let's say I get invited to a
party, and there's underage drinking. I'm not
drinking, but someone pulls out a camera. Even if
I'm not carrying a red Solo cup, I could be
photographed behind a girl doing shots. Later
that week, the dumb-dumb decides to post
photos from that 'amazing' party. If my mom saw I
was at a party with drinking, even if I wasn't
participating, I'd be dead. This isn't Facebook's
fault, but it happens there."
She's right. While every parent certainly wants to
know what their teens are doing when they are
out and about, Facebook fosters an almost creepy
form of supervision. It's like having your parents
supervise your Junior High prom. While parents
want to be able to supervise their children at all
times, children will attempt to avoid it like the
plague.
We're certainly not here to debate the merits of
proper parentage but it's clear children will do
whatever it takes — and this has become
increasingly easier in an age of endless digital
choice — to avoid their parents whenever that
can.
What does this mean for Zuck who, let's be
honest, was just a kid, himself, a few years ago? It
means his baby is going to become a rest home
for the over 40 crowd.
Of course, it should be said there's nothing wrong
with the over 40 crowd, especially when it comes
to their disposable income one assumes every
smart marketer desires. But, alas, most marketers
are just dumb. They love a shiny new object and
in lemming-like fashion they're going to chase
that flash because, let's be honest again, that 30-
year-old marketing director who recently edged
out that supremely more qualified but far too
grey and uncool 50-year-old, would much rather
create a hip, cool, edgy marketing program
fronted by a hip, cool, edgy and very youthful
celebrity that appeals to teens than some washed-
up celebrity has-been that, if the marketer did
their homework, would realize actually does have
a rock-solid connection with the over 40 crowd
who, as we all know, has money to spend.
While it's teens who are shifting away from
Facebook, it's the marketers who will pull the
money that fuels the network.
And that's why Facebook will fail. It won't happen
overnight. It may not happen in the next decade.
But it will happen. Which, of course, is sad and
frustrating. Because we'll all have to start the
stupid cycle over again. Teens find cool, new toy.
Parents discover it a few years later. Teens leave.
Cool, new toy goes out to pasture.
Culled from Adrants