2015: who says Nigeria will not Break

A few years back, the Americans were reported to
have predicted that Nigeria may not survive a
likely turmoil in 2015. The date obviously gives a
political undertone to the problem considering
that it coincides with when our next general
elections are due. The significance of the
prediction does not lie in the maker as those who
perceive America as omniscience would want the
nation to believe.
After all, France and indeed some of our own
prophets/soothsayers were reported to have also
seen 'visions' which corroborated the alarm. The
truth is that anyone who has followed the history
of Nigerian elections can easily have such
expectations. In the last one week however, some
rather soothing remarks on the subject have been
credited to our President, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan
and 2 former Heads of State-General Yakubu
Gowon and former President Ibrahim Babangida
(IBB).
To the positive views of these statesmen, I would
love to say a loud Amen and proceed to wish our
nation well. But because wishes are hardly
coterminous with reality, it appears ill-advisable
to rely on wishes. Again, those who think prayers
would do the magic have to bear in mind the
common saying that 'heaven helps those who
help themselves.
In other words, prayers alone may not be
sufficient especially if some of our compatriots as
usual, choose to be reckless about how they
handle our numerous centrifugal forces. For
instance, we are all aware that the fabric of
solidarity which binds our heterogeneous society
together is not only fragile but tends to stretch to
breaking point at the slightest provocation. Yet,
our people, especially the political class, always
put our country through constant threat of
dismemberment.
Although President Jonathan has said several
times that it is premature and distractive to get
involved in electioneering until next year, the
nation is already broken into 2 irreconcilable
groupings concerning his role in 2015 elections.
And whereas the first group which is a large
portion of the south appears ready to die if the
President is not re-elected, the second group-
another large portion of the North seems ready to
bring the world to an end if power does not shift
to the North in 2015.
Unfortunately, the show down is virtually
inevitable because of the lucrative nature of
politics and the winner-takes-all political system
that we run. For how long will our nation survive,
when with little or no work, a tiny elite group
appropriates so much to itself while an
exceedingly large segment of the population is
left prostrate?
The other day, one political analyst made a rather
uncharitable classification of the nation. He said
everyone knows what it takes to become a judge,
a medical doctor, a professor and indeed any
professional practitioner. The politician on the
other hand, gets to fame, according to the
analysis, through several question channels such
as illiteracy, fake certificates, thuggery and all
forms of duplicity.
The question as to which of the two groups is
better recognised and remunerated in Nigeria for
its contribution to national development does not
arise because the politicians themselves do not
quite know how much they earn. They just
expropriate. Why will politics not be a do or die
game and who says Nigeria cannot break on
account of politics?
The powerful Nigerian political class can in
earnest do and undo. If the group or even just
one of them organizes a function in our
collectively owned Abuja these days, the only
roads that would not be shut on the day by our
eye-service law enforcement agents would be the
few leading straight to the venue of the event. No
one works or goes anywhere that day. How can
the Nigerian bureaucracy be efficient or effective
when the system of recruitment has been gravely
corrupted?
Interestingly, we hear only about the scandalous
sale of job placements. The other condemnable
dimension of the numerous deficient recruits that
are imposed on institutions by the powerful are
taken as the entitlement of the latter. Indeed, the
same powerful occasionally sets up panels to
probe only the jobs that are sold. No one can
question the political class as public policies
weaken only the powerless
For instance, in order to make the apprehension
of criminals easy, persons who own factory fitted
'tokunbo' tinted glasses are made to register their
cars officially with the police supposedly at no
cost. The people and the authorities are however
aware that the powerless pay no less than N25,
000 per vehicle at the designated centres for the
assignment.
As part of transforming Nigeria, the Immigration
Service now officially renews an international
passport at the same cost of acquiring a new one.
It is probably for the same reason that the Federal
Road Safety Commission has decreed that fresh
and increased expenditures have to be borne for
the procurement of newly designed vehicle plate
numbers.
In major cities, landlords are passing to their
tenants, increases occasioned by ground rent,
tenement rate, facility fee and water rate to
mention a few. In Abuja, parking fees by different
collecting agencies are being imposed on the
people although there are no parks. Based on
these issues, which could obviously weaken the
weak beyond weakness, it can be argued that
Nigeria may not break physically but in the sub
consciousness of the weak, the break happened
mentally years ago. To the privileged class
however, these are non-issues because they
happen elsewhere and are reportedly temporary
sacrifices for development.
Last month, I was at a workshop where some of
the speakers blamed the nation's woes on the
media. According to them, journalists as patriots
ought to be engaged in advocacy journalism by
projecting their country only in good light. During
the question and answer session, the key note
speaker declined to respond to my question as to
what he considered the best way for a journalist
to report a public event like the process arranged
by our 36 governors to elect a chairman for the
Nigerian Governors Forum. He just said that was
politics. I understood him to mean that whether
Nigeria would survive over time depends on
politics.